Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Malaria and Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa


This past spring I was fortunate enough to take a two-week trip to South Africa as a part of school research on local ecology.  While there, I experienced a nation of beautiful people, exotic wildlife and picturesque landscapes.  The children would stare with a confused look on their face, a fearful stare; perhaps fearful of their futures. What struck me most, after talking to a number of people that live there, was that I was on a disease-ravaged continent.  Africa’s peoples, especially in the Sub-Saharan region, live with the well known fact that there is a more-than-good chance that they will contract AIDS, Malaria or any number of deadly diseases.  In fact, any illness is fatal for most Africans, as they do not have access to quality healthcare due to geographic and mostly economic factors. 

Upon my return to the States, I invested a lot of time into researching this subject.  I already knew that climate change would spread deadly diseases to regions that are currently not as much at risk as others.  But, I wanted to know how much worse Sub-Saharan Africa's situation would be.  Whilst AIDS is more of a socio-economic problem that is being fought on a global scale by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations, there are a number of environmentally-linked diseases that are greatly affected by changes in temperature and climate.  Malaria is one of them, and is by far the greatest threat to Sub-Saharan Africa, which is why the focus of this article will be on it.  (Note: A subsequent article about AIDS in Africa and how it can be an environmentally linked disease will be posted soon). 

Malaria is a vector disease (when the infection is carried by a transporting animal – in this case the mosquito) that is only spread by the mosquitoes of the Anopheles genus.  Oddly enough, this specific mosquito has been eradicated in the United States and other developed nations, confining them to the tropical regions of the Earth, making it an endemic disease.  It affects over 100 countries and affects more than 300 million people each year (some estimates are exponentially higher).  The reason the focus is on Africa is because 90% of the fatalities occur on the African continent.  Unfortunately, 86% of those killed are children.  In fact, one child dies every 30 seconds from malaria, totaling an average of 3,000 children each day.
Female Anopheles Mosquito
Baby Being Treated for Malaria









Clearly, there is a global epidemic present.  It was believed that malaria took over 600,000 deaths in each of the last few years.  However, in a recent study conducted by the highly reputable Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation based out of the University of Washington, we may have underestimated the number of deaths by malaria – by more than half the actual number.  The IHME estimates that over 1.2 million people die each year from malaria, again with almost all occurring in Africa.  In certain countries such as Mali, Mozambique and Burkina Faso, 170, 176 and 184 people die for every 1,000 people, respectively.  


Malaria Deaths Per 1,000 People

When I was in Africa, I was prescribed malaria pills, which I was ordered to take every day while in a malaria-infected area.  A prescription of 14 pills cost me $50.00.  Studies have shown that malaria costs Africa $12 billion dollars each year in lost GDP and that malaria can be controlled for far less.  According to UNICEF, the commonly used anti-malarial medications – which only cost a few cents each - are losing their effectiveness.  New, more costly, treatments, which cost $2.00-$2.50, are out of the realm of possibility for much of the African population.  Alternatives are proposed, though.  Mosquito nets (used while sleeping) can reduce malarial infections by 50%, yet less than 2% of African children sleep under a net.  Long-term mosquito nets, which do not need regular insecticide treatment, cost about $5.00.  That seems like nothing to us - virtually guaranteed protection for under $10.00.  Unfortunately, the average Sub-Saharan lives on less than $2.00 per day, making it nearly impossible to afford this preventative treatment, let alone supply it for an entire family.  Even if all was supplied (new anti-malarial medication and nets) by the government, foreign NGO’s or even foreign governments, the total cost to supply all of those that died in Africa would be well below the $12 billion lost in GDP, and not to mention, more than 1 million people in Africa would still be alive, and close to 1 million children would be able to have a future. 

Climate Suitability for Malarial Outbreaks
Every study that I have read addresses the issue of climate change worsening malaria in the tropic regions of the world.  As climate change progresses, Sub-Saharan temperatures will rise, and with a change in climate, mosquitoes will have larger numbers in regions where they are currently located and can even migrate to new regions where malaria isn’t as much of a threat.  The World Health Organization predicts that malaria will be the disease most exacerbated by long-term climate change.  Malarial outbreaks are in ways controlled by seasonal changes in temperature and climate.  Regions such as the Indian Ocean basin and Sub-Saharan Africa will experiences warmer temperatures and increased rainfall – the perfect scenario for increased mosquito breeding.  WHO also projects that a 2-3 degree increase in global temperatures would increase the number of people affected by malaria by 3-5% - resulting in several hundred million new malarial infections. 

According to Harvard’s School of Public Health, Africa’s current population of 1.03 billion is set to more than triple by the end of the century to 3.6-4 billion people.  Much of that growth is going to occur in the area with the highest malarial infections and deaths – Central Sub-Saharan Africa.  If current trends continue, the more than 1 million malarial deaths in Africa could exponentially increase due to climate change and future population growth; by the end of the century, the number of deaths could reach the many millions or even tens of millions if there is no drastic intervention.  But that is pure speculation at this point.

Fortunately, there has been substantial intervention in recent years.  Since 2000, there has been a 33% decrease in malaria-related deaths in WHO African nations.  Unfortunately that doesn’t change the fact that 90% of malaria deaths still occur in WHO African nations.  Perhaps the biggest breakthrough has just occurred.  Sanaria, a Maryland based biotechnology firm, has created a vaccine that has been 100% effective in each of the six administered tests.  It is much more complex than you may be thinking, and is very expensive as it is only in its trial stages.  Each of the six volunteers received five doses over six weeks and were then immune when bitten with an infected mosquito.  For now, it is impractical to begin to apply treatments to the malaria-ravaged Sub-Saharan region.  Researchers are nonetheless extremely optimistic about the future of this vaccine and the potential it holds for worldwide use.  Like all vaccinations, they are expensive and isolated for use at first, but within a few decades, diseases can be virtually eradicated from the Earth (i.e. Polio).  Perhaps in a few decades, at the height of the African population boom, this vaccination will be ready for mass production and application to the most vulnerable and affected regions of the world. 

This breakthrough does not diminish the fact that essential steps must be taken now, on an international level.  As stated earlier, for a fraction of the cost of malaria (meaning the loss in GDP), substantial prevention and assistance can be provided to those that need it the most.  Anti-malaria pills, insecticide-treated sleeping nets and other mosquito deterrents can be provided through the UN or WHO to the billions of people who are currently living in malaria regions.  Already, hundreds of billions of dollars are provided through these organizations each year.  For a few billion dollars more, literally millions of lives – mostly children – can be saved.  In addition, it is obvious that serious discussions on climate change need to take place, and on an international level.  Africa is likely to be the worlds leading economy by the end of the century.  The United States and China are already pledging billions of dollars in investments and assistance to ensure its success.  But to create a booming economy, you need workers.  Currently, the workers that would be leading that future economy are dying by the millions – the children of Africa.  The causes of malaria deaths are both socio-economic and environmental, both of which can be addressed and prevented.  It is both an imperative task and a moral duty for the worlds leading economies to intervene and assist in Africa and the other malaria zones to ensure that children have futures and nations can become integral members of the global economy.  

Africa's Future


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