This past spring I was fortunate
enough to take a two-week trip to South Africa as a part of school research on
local ecology. While there, I
experienced a nation of beautiful people, exotic wildlife and picturesque
landscapes. The children would stare with a confused look on their face, a fearful stare; perhaps fearful of their futures. What struck me most,
after talking to a number of people that live there, was that I was on a
disease-ravaged continent.
Africa’s peoples, especially in the Sub-Saharan region, live with the well
known fact that there is a more-than-good chance that they will contract AIDS,
Malaria or any number of deadly diseases.
In fact, any illness is fatal for most Africans, as they do not have
access to quality healthcare due to geographic and mostly economic factors.
Upon my return to the States, I
invested a lot of time into researching this subject. I already knew that climate change would spread deadly
diseases to regions that are currently not as much at risk as others. But, I wanted to know how much worse
Sub-Saharan Africa's situation would be.
Whilst AIDS is more of a socio-economic problem that is being fought on
a global scale by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations,
there are a number of environmentally-linked diseases that are greatly affected
by changes in temperature and climate.
Malaria is one of them, and is by far the greatest threat to Sub-Saharan
Africa, which is why the focus of this article will be on it. (Note: A subsequent article about AIDS
in Africa and how it can be an environmentally linked disease will be posted
soon).
Malaria is a vector disease (when
the infection is carried by a transporting animal – in this case the mosquito)
that is only spread by the mosquitoes of the Anopheles genus. Oddly
enough, this specific mosquito has been eradicated in the United States and
other developed nations, confining them to the tropical regions of the
Earth, making it an endemic disease. It affects over 100
countries and affects more than 300 million people each year (some estimates are exponentially higher). The reason the focus is on Africa is
because 90% of the fatalities occur on the African continent. Unfortunately, 86% of those killed are
children. In fact, one child dies
every 30 seconds from malaria, totaling an average of 3,000 children each day.
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| Female Anopheles Mosquito |
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| Baby Being Treated for Malaria |
Clearly, there is a global epidemic
present. It was believed that malaria
took over 600,000 deaths in each of the last few years. However, in a recent study conducted by
the highly reputable Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation based out of
the University of Washington, we may have underestimated the number of deaths
by malaria – by more than half the actual number. The IHME estimates that over 1.2 million people die each
year from malaria, again with almost all occurring in Africa. In certain countries such as Mali,
Mozambique and Burkina Faso, 170, 176 and 184 people die for every 1,000
people, respectively.
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| Malaria Deaths Per 1,000 People |
When I was in Africa, I was
prescribed malaria pills, which I was ordered to take every day while in a
malaria-infected area. A
prescription of 14 pills cost me $50.00.
Studies have shown that malaria costs Africa $12 billion dollars each
year in lost GDP and that malaria can be controlled for far less. According to UNICEF, the commonly used
anti-malarial medications – which only cost a few cents each - are losing their
effectiveness. New, more costly, treatments, which cost $2.00-$2.50, are out of the realm of possibility for
much of the African population.
Alternatives are proposed, though.
Mosquito nets (used while sleeping) can reduce malarial infections by
50%, yet less than 2% of African children sleep under a net. Long-term mosquito nets, which do not
need regular insecticide treatment, cost about $5.00. That seems like nothing to us - virtually guaranteed protection for
under $10.00. Unfortunately, the
average Sub-Saharan lives on less than $2.00 per day, making it nearly
impossible to afford this preventative treatment, let alone supply it for an entire family. Even if all was supplied (new anti-malarial medication and
nets) by the government, foreign NGO’s or even foreign governments, the total
cost to supply all of those that died in Africa would be well below the $12
billion lost in GDP, and not to mention, more than 1 million people in Africa would
still be alive, and close to 1 million children would be able to have a
future.
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| Climate Suitability for Malarial Outbreaks |
Every study that I have read
addresses the issue of climate change worsening malaria in the tropic regions
of the world. As climate change
progresses, Sub-Saharan temperatures will rise, and with a change in climate, mosquitoes
will have larger numbers in regions where they are currently located and can
even migrate to new regions where malaria isn’t as much of a threat. The World Health Organization predicts that malaria will be the disease most exacerbated by long-term climate
change. Malarial outbreaks are in
ways controlled by seasonal changes in temperature and climate. Regions such as the Indian Ocean basin
and Sub-Saharan Africa will experiences warmer temperatures and increased
rainfall – the perfect scenario for increased mosquito breeding. WHO also projects that a 2-3 degree
increase in global temperatures would increase the number of people affected by
malaria by 3-5% - resulting in several hundred million new malarial infections.
According to Harvard’s School of
Public Health, Africa’s current population of 1.03 billion is set to more than
triple by the end of the century to 3.6-4 billion people. Much of that growth is going to occur
in the area with the highest malarial infections and deaths – Central
Sub-Saharan Africa. If current
trends continue, the more than 1 million malarial deaths in Africa could
exponentially increase due to climate change and future population growth; by
the end of the century, the number of deaths could reach the many millions or
even tens of millions if there is no drastic intervention. But that is pure speculation at this
point.
Fortunately, there has been
substantial intervention in recent years.
Since 2000, there has been a 33% decrease in malaria-related deaths in
WHO African nations. Unfortunately
that doesn’t change the fact that 90% of malaria deaths still occur in WHO
African nations. Perhaps the
biggest breakthrough has just occurred.
Sanaria, a Maryland based biotechnology firm, has created a vaccine that
has been 100% effective in each of the six administered tests. It is much more complex than you may be
thinking, and is very expensive as it is only in its trial stages. Each of the six volunteers received
five doses over six weeks and were then immune when bitten with an infected
mosquito. For now, it is
impractical to begin to apply treatments to the malaria-ravaged Sub-Saharan region. Researchers are nonetheless extremely optimistic
about the future of this vaccine and the potential it holds for worldwide
use. Like all vaccinations, they
are expensive and isolated for use at first, but within a few decades, diseases
can be virtually eradicated from the Earth (i.e. Polio). Perhaps in a few decades, at the height
of the African population boom, this vaccination will be ready for mass
production and application to the most vulnerable and affected regions of the world.
This breakthrough does not diminish
the fact that essential steps must be taken now, on an international
level. As stated earlier, for a
fraction of the cost of malaria (meaning the loss in GDP), substantial
prevention and assistance can be provided to those that need it the most. Anti-malaria pills, insecticide-treated
sleeping nets and other mosquito deterrents can be provided through the UN or
WHO to the billions of people who are currently living in malaria regions. Already, hundreds of billions of
dollars are provided through these organizations each year. For a few billion dollars more, literally
millions of lives – mostly children – can be saved. In addition, it is obvious that serious discussions on
climate change need to take place, and on an international level. Africa is likely to be the worlds
leading economy by the end of the century. The United States and China are already pledging billions of
dollars in investments and assistance to ensure its success. But to create a booming economy, you
need workers. Currently, the
workers that would be leading that future economy are dying by the millions –
the children of Africa. The causes
of malaria deaths are both socio-economic and environmental, both of which can
be addressed and prevented. It is
both an imperative task and a moral duty for the worlds leading economies to
intervene and assist in Africa and the other malaria zones to ensure that
children have futures and nations can become integral members of the global
economy.
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| Africa's Future |
