Population and Energy Consumption

There is no denying that certain regions of the world are facing population crises.  Nations have had to implement policies to control the growth, educate the public and prepare for the future.  What is unknown, to a certain extent, however, is how severe the population crisis will be in the future.  With population growth, especially the 3 billion-person increase by the end of the century as projected by the United Nations, comes increasing demand for food, energy and other resources (United Nations 2013).  However, this paper will focus on one major aspect that is uncertain – the future availability of energy for the future global population. 

           

            In 1973, John Holdren, who is currently the senior advisor the President Obama on science and technology issues, stated, “the 12-fold increase in total energy use is the product…of the four-fold increase in population and the three-fold increase in use per person” (Holdren 1973).  Although this was said four decades ago, the idea still remains applicable; as population increases, energy demand will increase exponentially.  As populations and nations become richer per capita, energy demand per person will also increase exponentially.  This raises an important question: How will future governments fuel their nations? 

There will be a point, that may be within the next few decades, and seems to be almost a certainty, that global oil reserves will be depleted, if current levels of extraction remain in place, by the middle to late part of this century (OPEC 2011).  In addition, estimates, at least in the United States, have our natural gas reserves lasting at most 100 years (Reuteman 2012).  Coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, is quickly becoming less frequently used due to its environmental impact.  Clearly, than, the solution seems to be that the future populations will need to be fueled by alternative energy, unless more fossil fuel reserves are discovered and can be accessed.  It will take an international effort to ensure that every nation has the resources available to provide alternative energy to its people. 

            Different economic statuses seem to indicate different methods of fueling a nation.  There are the poor, underdeveloped or developing nations that still rely on coal and wood fuel, such as Haiti and Sub-Saharan Africa.  Developing nations that mainly use oil, but still rely on coal to an extent.  The argument could be made that an example of this would be China, given that many of the Chinese are poor and their heavy reliance on coal, even though it is rapidly becoming one of the world’s economic leaders.  Finally, there are the developed nations that regularly use fossil fuels, mainly oil and natural gas, but are beginning to implement alternative energy resources such as wind and solar energy. 

            The United States has already began reducing is dependence on foreign oil, and, as of 2013, alternative energy production has surpassed nuclear energy (Brownstein 2013).  Since President Obama assumed the office of the presidency in 2008, he has made it a top priority to reduce dependence on not just foreign oil, but oil in general.  He has implemented “green” initiatives that have created thousands of jobs to produce this nations future energy production cites.  Wind farms are being built throughout the nation, solar farms are producing massive amounts of energy, and together, they are fueling our nation through the improved smart grid (Wolak 2011).  The United States still has much work to do before it can produce an alternative energy infrastructure that can sustain our standard of living, and economic and social demands well into the future. 

            Developed nations have been transitioning to alternative energy in the masses, but the majority of the world, primarily the developing nations, still do not have the resources, whether it be economic or industrial, to manufacture these sources of energy.  A possible solution to this problem is to either sell used, but still functioning, equipment to developing nations to help build infrastructure that can support the beginning stages of an alternative energy supply; another option is to provide the poorer nations with financial support that must be applied to alternative energy manufacturing.  Either option is viable. 

           

            Considering the fact that the majority of the future population growth will occur in the developing nations around the world, it becomes a human rights issue that they be well supported and have the resources necessary to contribute to the national transition towards a developed economy.  As a developed nation, it would be immoral to sit back and watch a poor nation such as Haiti - which constantly battles disease, widespread poverty, a weak government and undernutrition – struggle to provide their people with affordable, clean and readily available energy.  Nations like Haiti rely on coal and wood to fuel their economy – so much so that they have removed nearly every tree for fuel.  At a certain point, developing nations will no longer have the resources to fuel their country, industries and economies.  But before this happens, a developed nation can intervene and provide cheap, used and functioning wind mills, or solar panels in an attempt to begin the process of converting the most vulnerable states into alternative energy economies.  As stated, this concept is not only applicable to Haiti, but rather almost every developing nation.  In addition to providing them with renewable energy, this clean source of energy will also reduce carbon concentrations and pollution in the local atmosphere, which in turn directly benefits human health (“Benefits…” 2013).  It will take an international effort, but it is essential to ensure that the developing nations and centers of future population growth have the resources necessary to establish and maintain an alternative energy infrastructure as fossil fuels become less readily available. 

            Another factor that must be addressed is the consumption of fuel for transportation.  According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, “oil accounts for more than 95 percent of all the energy used for transportation in the United States” (“Oil…” 2012).  Many automobile companies have taken the initiative to begin to develop and manufacture vehicles that are hybrids or alternative energy vehicles.  These vehicles have become extremely popular as the public has become more environmentally conscious, but also in response to increasing gasoline prices.  It can be expected that as oil becomes scarcer, gasoline prices will increase due to a lack of supply and increasing demand (more people on the earth) (Rosenberg 2008).  While this will trigger a larger movement for consumers to purchase more fuel-efficient cars, it will also force manufacturers to produce vehicles that do not rely on fossil fuels.  Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and the other major motor vehicle companies have all released a vehicle that runs on pure electricity.  This is an essential step in the right direction, but does not completely answer the question considering most of the electricity that will power the vehicle in the United States is generated from natural gas (Handley 2013).  The future of the motor vehicle industry is hydrogen fuel cell and solar vehicles.  Each of these technologies provides the public with clean and relatively renewable sources of energy, some more than others.  Although extremely expensive now, as these vehicles are mass-produced and consumed, prices will become more affordable for the general public.  Solar vehicles, are now being developed, but still have to overcome many obstacles before they can be produced for the public.  Currently, there is solar powered airplane that is crossing the United States (Hennigan 2013).  Although it is traveling slowly, scientists are hopeful that this model will open windows of opportunity for future models that may one day be commercialized.  Fuel cell vehicles, such as the Honda FCX, create electricity though a chemical reaction with hydrogen and oxygen, has zero emissions, gets the equivalent of 51 miles per gallon, and can even supply a home with power for a week (“Honda…” 2013).  An obvious challenge for fuel cell vehicles is the availability of hydrogen fueling stations.  In addition, there is not a significant amount of hydrogen fuel that can be used to supply future generations worth of vehicles – it will have to be produced (Siegel 2012).  California currently has a number of fueling stations throughout the state to supply its customers with this resource.  Japan and some European nations are also providing hydrogen filling stations, many of which are testing sites. 

            Until this technology can be available to everyone, sustainable practices must be implemented and enforced by national and international authorities.  Setting fuel efficiency standards, as President Obama has done, is a way to reduce consumption on gasoline while benefiting the environment.  LEED certification, a standard that grades buildings on how environmentally friendly and sustainable they are, is becoming a target for major corporations.  These companies are under increasing pressure from the public, as well as from inside their boardroom to cut costs (in the long run).  Newly constructed buildings are constructed with environmentally friendly materials, have a smaller carbon footprint and use significantly less energy to run the systems.  At the commercial level, this idea of sustainability is working well; unfortunately, sustainable practices need to be implemented in homes if there are any hopes to reduce fuel consumption as population grows.  Policies could be implemented that would require that all households install compact fluorescent light bulbs, low-flow faucets, energy-saving windows, insulation, etc.  By providing tax credits as incentives to install these energy-saving solutions, the public may be willing to pay for the initial cost if they receive tax credits in the future, as well as paying less on their energy bills.  Implementing policies through tax credits has been used and has been proven to be successful in the United States as many homes around the nation installed solar panels after President Obama promised a tax credit for those who did so (Shapley 2011).  If every household in America were to install similar energy saving technologies, we could significantly reduce energy consumption now and for the future.  By applying this same logic to developing nations, but by supplying this technology as foreign aid, energy consumption in the regions where population will increase the most can also decrease.  It is possible that this decrease could sustain itself until better and more efficient alternative energy resources are cheaper and readily available to everyone in every nation. 

            Finally, by reducing our demand for certain types of energy, more agricultural land will be able to be used for food instead of energy production.  Currently, 1% of arable land is used for biofuel production.  It may not seem like much, but by 2030, 4.2% of arable land will be used for biofuel production in order to meet the global demand for biofuels (“Climate Change…” 2013).  Biofuels are highly inefficient and if the international community were to reduce its dependence on biofuels, such as ethanol, this land could instead be used for crop production to feed the growing population.  In addition, the demand for food will be highest in urban populations; the FAO projects that by 2050, 70% of the global population will live in urban areas (“How to…” 2013).  In this same report, they project that cereal and meat production will increase .9 million tonnes and 200 million tonnes, respectively.  “In developing nations”, says the FAO, “80 percent of the necessary production increases would come from increases in yields and cropping intensity and only 20 percent from expansion of arable land”, meaning that new land for agriculture will rarely be developed and the regions where population is set to increase the most will have to feed themselves off of the land they will have at the time by increasing the amount of food they can produce from that land (“How to…” 2013).  It will not be feasible to devote land that will be so essential to the future population to inefficient fuel that will be obsolete by the end of the century, as new technologies will take its place. 

            As the global population continues to exponentially increase, especially in the developing regions of the world, the international community faces a series of issues that must be addressed now to ensure the stability of the future.  Natural resource consumption, sustainability, technology and agriculture will all play an essential role in the next few decades.  In a way, they all are intertwined, as a change in one affects the other.  It will take a combination of national and international authority, cultural changes, will power, dignity and compassion to deal with the 3 billion-person increase that will occur by the end of the century.  Sacrifices will have to be made by some to ensure the safety and wellness of others.  Standards of living may have to change, as what was once feasible will no longer be in the future.  The international community will have to come together to assist the most vulnerable and most at-need regions of the world.  Generally speaking, population increases will occur in just about every nation, meaning we will all have to adapt to the inevitable changes and challenges that will be encountered.  Certain nations are more prepared to deal with these changes, while changes in other nations will only make the current situation exponentially worse.  Resources are becoming increasingly scarce in many parts of the world, and with only a few decades left until the next 1 billion people are added to this planet, action must be taken immediately to ensure that even the developed and developing nations have the resources and energy available to sustain and grow their economies.  The future population increase is arguably the most challenging issue that the international community faces.  The technology is there, it is a matter of making it cheaper and available to everyone so that the future generations have a chance at prosperity, environmental quality and survival. 

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