Abstract
This paper will discuss
sea level rise along the Mid-Atlantic, specifically New Jersey. A state ravaged by Hurricane Sandy,
climate change and sea level rise has become a heavily discussed topic within
the state and the local and state level.
Many New Jerseyan’ s have neglected to even think about this issue, but
after the disaster that has caused billions of dollars in damage, climate
change and sea level rise have taken the reigns as one of the most talked about
issues in my home state. I will
also discuss recent studies that have discovered new estimates in sea level
rise in New Jersey, as well as possible solutions to the problem and what the
future may look like for New Jersey, the Mid-Atlantic and the world as a whole.
Introduction
New Jersey is my
home state and I have spent most of my childhood and every summer at the Jersey
Shore. I have countless memories
of waking up early to go to the boardwalk for breakfast with my family, going
to Surf Street beach during the days, riding my first surfboard, the amusement
parks at night and the saltiness in the air that one will always remember. These memories were not exclusively
mine, but were shared by millions of families.
Other than the
popular MTV show, “Jersey Shore”, New Jersey is well known for many other
things: accents, its pristine beaches
and nationally rated coastal communities, Wawa (a convenience store), a corrupt
state government, Bruce Springsteen and of course, its population. New Jersey is the most densely
populated state in the nation. As
of now, there are currently 8.8 million people living there (Census, 2012). Of that, as of 2012, 5.5 million people
live in the coast counties, which make up 11 of its 21 total counties (Census,
2012).
Hurricane Sandy
brought many things to the New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic: widespread
devastation, coastal erosion, immense flooding, power outages lasting weeks,
and hundreds of families that lost their homes. All of this added up to tens of billions of dollars in
damage. Of course, there is one
thing that cannot be labeled with a price, the loss of 100 plus lives.
In the wake of
Hurricane Sandy, climate change has been a heavily discussed topic in politics,
the media and by many New Jerseyan’s.
For as long as I can remember, sea level rise and climate change were
rarely ever talked about in my state, at least among the citizens. In the past few months, not only are
more people discussing climate change, but they are demanding action be taken
by Governor Chris Christie and President Obama. Unfortunately, climate change is not a new phenomenon and
the call for action may be coming a tad too late. With UN and independent research constantly being done on
climate change and the sea level rise that will occur as a result, it seems as
if possible scenarios continue to look worse than the previous models.
Data and Methods
New Jersey is a
relatively low-lying state, and is very low lying in the Southern half of the
state where the famous Pine Barrens are located. Most living in New Jersey know that the Pine Barrens, known
as “Pinelands”, is the largest pine barren complex in the world ("New Jersey Pinelands.", 2012),
but not many know exactly how the Pine Barrens were formed. The soil, that early settlers found to
be nutrient-poor, was deposited on the ocean floor during the Miocene period
13-15 million years ago ("Pinelands Soil Background.",
2012). At a time when sea
levels were much higher, most of, if not all of, New Jersey was under
water. The true significance of
the Pine Barrens is the sandy topsoil that resembles the beaches just miles
away and that plays an imperative role in the filtration for the aquifer that
lays just beneath it (“Pine Barrens…”, 2012). Geologists and climatologists believe that this formation
was created Pleistocene Epoch.
During this period of time, there were multiple glacial expansions and
recessions. As glaciers moved
south, they carried grounded sediment and sand from the north. Due to a terminal moraine that runs
horizontal across Southern New Jersey, this sediment carried by the glaciers was
deposited in the area now known as the Pine Barrens (Sheridan, 2005).
This formation plays an integral role in the climate change effects
currently taking place in New Jersey, as well as the significant sea level rise
that could follow.
Since the early to
mid-1900’s, New Jersey saw a population boom; after World War II, people
flooded to the barrier islands in search of beachfront properties. During this period, the towns of Ocean
City, Sea Side Heights, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island and Cape May, were
developed and from then on, would forever change the socio-economic status of
New Jersey. In addition,
unforeseen environmental and ecological barriers were developed.
Barrier islands
are natural geologic formations developed from the erosion of beaches over
hundreds of thousand of years.
With time, barrier islands actually move closer and away from the shores
of the coastline. This process is
called barrier island migration.
Barrier islands’ main purposes are to shield the coastline from violent
storms, such as hurricanes, that may threaten the coast. As humans develop on these islands,
they not only put themselves at risk of violent storms, which is what was seen
with Hurricane Sandy, but they also prohibit the natural process of barrier
island migration with the constant dredging of beaches to prevent erosion.
As climate change
progresses and the earth gets warmer, ground ice will melt and make its way
into the ocean, causing global sea levels to rise. Science proves that this is inevitable, but what is unknown
is by how much seas will rise. For
a low-lying state such as New Jersey, as well as for the majority of the states
in the Mid-Atlantic, it is quite easy to understand what sea levels were like hundreds
of thousands of years ago, which can be used to project what may happen in the
future. The Pine Barrens prove to
be a useful tool for scientists as this area was underwater just a few thousand
years ago.
Sea level rise,
environmentally speaking, is one of the top threats to New Jersey. With over half of its population living
in the coastal communities, and with over 1 million people living on the
barrier islands, natural disasters, like Hurricane Sandy, have sparked the
government to plan for climate change and sea level rise. In a recent article published by Nature Climate Change titled “Sea versus
Senators”, author Leigh Phillips discusses a startling find that scientists
have found recently that may be reason to take sea level rise seriously in New
Jersey. According to Asbury Sallenger,
an oceanographer for the United States Geological Survey in St. Petersburg
Florida, sea level rise along the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States is
rising at a rate 3 to 4 times greater than the global average (Phillips, 2012). Specifically, Sallenger noted that
since 1980, the sea level for the Mid-Atlantic (between North Carolina and
Massachusetts) has risen 2.0 – 3.7 centimeters (3/4 to 1.5 inches). Sallenger believes that these increased
rates of sea level rise could be to changes in the North Atlantic Gyre, a
circular rotation of water caused by numerous currents in the North
Atlantic. With more freshwater
entering the North Atlantic, the changes that this freshwater could cause to
the North Atlantic Oscillation may result in a weakening of the Gyre causing
sea level rise which may be higher than the global average. He also states in his piece, “These
low levels could rise with warming and/or freshening of surface water in the sub-polar
north Atlantic, where less dense water inhibits deep convection associated with
the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC). The AMOC weakens and
pressure gradients along the North American east coast decrease, raising sea
levels” (Sallenger, 2012). At this rate, Sallenger believes that
the Mid-Atlantic could see a 30-centimeter addition to the already one meter
global average sea level rise by 2100.
This 1.3 meter, or 4.25 foot, rise would inundate the many of the
barrier islands, as well as much of the coastal counties of New Jersey.
This of course is
one model out of the thousands that are run every year. The United States Environmental
Protection Agency also released a study in which they provide a “best-case” and
“worst case” scenario for climate change, temperature change and sea level
rise. They calculate these models
based off of possible carbon dioxide, the leading cause of global warming
during our lifetime, emissions from the present until 2100. Based off of the carbon emission trend
from the 1960’s into the 1970’s and a continuation
of lower levels of carbon emissions, the United States could expect to see an
average temperature increase of 4-6 degrees Fahrenheit, with a 6-10 degree
increase in Alaska. In the higher-level
emissions model,
the entire country will see an 8-10 degree increase with all of Alaska
experiencing a 10+-degree increase by 2100 (EPA,
2012). Similar results are
found when these measurements of emissions are applied globally. Low-level emissions will result in a
6-10 degree increase for much of the Northern Hemisphere and an 8-10+ increase
using the high-level emissions model.
Something not shown in these models was ice melting from the regions of
Greenland, Antarctica and other glacial formations. In these regions, using low level emissions testing,
Greenland and the northern part of the North Hemisphere would see an 8 degree
average increase by the end of the century and a 5 degree increase in
Antarctica. These temperature
increases are significantly different when applied to the high emissions test
in which Greenland and the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere would see a
10-14 degree increase and Antarctica would see an 8-10 degree increase. As a result of the high level model, in
which nations such as China and India would continue to emit continuously
higher levels of carbon-dioxide and the United States and the other top 10
emitting nations would barely cut back emissions or stay on pace with current
emissions, the average 1 meter global rise in sea level could turn into a 6
meter (~20 feet) rise if just Greenland were to loose most of its
ice and an unimaginable 60 meters (~200 feet) should Antarctica lose all of its
ice. This is the worst-case
scenario (DOSEWPC: AAD, 2008). Of course if all of Antarctica were to
melt, all of Greenland, as well as all frozen ground ice, would melt as
well. Scientists are not ruling
this out, but do consider this to be highly unlikely to happen by the end of
the century. But on a continuation
of the current societal path, this scenario very well could happen at some
point into the next century. Should
this happen, not only would the entire state of New Jersey be hundreds of feet
underwater, the entire map of the world would have to be redone and almost
every metropolis in the world will be gone, displacing billions of people
inland
Aside from the
apocalyptic scenario just presented, New Jersey would be still be severely
threatened by the more likely, and expected, 2-4 meter rise in sea level by
2100. Inundated regions will cause
billions of dollars in damage as well as forcing hundreds of thousands, if not
millions of people from their homes forcing them to relocate. Geology.com has produced a model to
show how sea level rise would affect New Jersey by showing the flooding that
would incur from different rises in sea level from 1m to 60m. Figure 4 shows New Jersey at present
sea level and what the state would look like from a 4-meter rise in sea level,
which is on the higher end of the more likely scenario. In addition to the inundation of the
barrier islands that would be uninhabitable, the inlet regions of the state in
major population hubs – such as Toms River, Brick, Galloway Township, Egg
Harbor Township, Camden, Gloucester City, Hoboken, Wall Township, Red Bank and
Perth Amboy – would all suffer heavy flooding (Tingle, 2012). A very concerning aspect of this sea
level rise is the possibility of the flooding of the Salem Nuclear Power Plant
in Southern New Jersey. This power
plant lies on the Delaware Bay and would be entirely underwater should a
4-meter rise in sea level occur.
Aside from a shutdown of a major source of energy for this area, there
is the obvious concern of the safety hazards when nuclear power plants flood
with seawater – as we saw in Fukushima.
Results and Recommendations
Governor
Christie and his administration are working intensively with the New Jersey
Department of Environmental Protection to begin to prepare vulnerable regions
of the state for sea level rise and other side effects of climate change that
may threaten New Jersey. In 2008
the current Administrator of the United States Environmental Protection Agency,
Lisa Jackson (the then Commissioner of the New Jersey Department of
Environmental Protection) created the Office of Climate and Energy under her
department and began to address climate change concerns facing her state (Mauriello, 2009). This office enforces the New Jersey
Global Warming Response Act and Global Warming Solutions Fund Act, signed into
effect in 2007, which address the call for carbon-dioxide emission reduction to
1990 levels by 2020, an 80% reduction in emissions from the 2006 levels by
2050, and increased usage of alternative energy resources creating “green”
jobs. Unfortunately, this plan
does not answer sea level concerns, nor would New Jersey’s carbon emissions
reduction have any significant impact on global levels.
Recently,
there has been talk within the state governments of New Jersey and New York
about the halting of development on these barrier islands and areas vulnerable
to sea level rise. The New
York Times spoke with Dr. Norbert P. Psuty, a professor at the Institute of
Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University in New Jersey, in which he
states, “We can avoid damage like that of Hurricane Sandy if we encourage
people to move and discourage further development” (Psuty, 2012). While politicians have been hesitant to
listen to scientists for economic development tips over the years, they have
been more accepting of their advice recently. In New Jersey, advice, such as that given by Dr. Psuty, is
being considered more than possible economic benefits of development in these
areas. Some believe that the
damage inflicted by Hurricane Sandy was not due to sea level rise; while this
may be true, the flooding that resulted in most of the damage can shed light on
what future flooding from sea level rise could do to the state. The main difference is that unlike the
hurricane flooding, the water from sea level rise would not recede.
One
of the main concerns by developers and scientists is the development of
communities on the barrier islands.
As stated, over 1 million New Jerseyan’s live on the barrier islands
that line more than 3/4 of the coastline.
After Hurricane Sandy, those living in the state saw first hand what
heavy flooding could do to these areas.
In a recent post on my website, Worn Trails, I recommended that New
Jerseyan’s living here should seriously consider relocating and moving
inland. While the idea of living
just minutes from the beach is ideal for some, the rising seas and permanent
inundation of this area may outweigh the benefits of staying put (Clementi,
2012). Barrier islands were never
meant to be inhabited. Their
natural responsibilities are hindered and weakened as development
continues. With over 200+ years of
development, cultivation and dredging, barrier islands have not been able to
perform their duties and in some ways are becoming more dangerous than
helpful. People are now at the
front lines of natural disasters.
By the end of the century, millions of people will be displaced from
their communities in search of new homes.
Many underestimate the seriousness of this situation. As seas rise, the value of these homes
will drop significantly; thus, the window for relocating and getting good value
for ones home is closing. Should
people opt to stay put, they not only put themselves and their families at risk
from the flooding that will occur, but they put the lives of others, such as
first responders, at risk as we continue to see the “100 year flood” every
year, as New York Governor Andrew Cuomo stated after Hurricane Sandy (Sledge,
2012).
This
is a large task to ask more than one million people to do. The economic benefits that these
islands and low-lying areas provide to New Jersey may very well be
irreplaceable. The tourism
industry brings billions of dollars each year to this state, not to mention the
hundreds of billions of dollars in real estate that lines the coastline that
provide billions more in tax revenue.
This issue was once an economic and political issue that was put off for
years, and often viewed as a ridiculous consideration. But as always, it usually takes a
disaster to force those in power to reconsider. After Hurricane Sandy, the possibility of relocation is
slowly becoming more accepted, but it will be the task of convincing these
citizens to pack up and leave the communities, in which many have lived their
whole lives, that will prove to be the most difficult. While there are still decades until the
impacts of sea level rise start to threaten people’s homes and lives, the time
for preparation is now. In
discussing this issue with many of those that I know that live on these barrier
islands, the general consensus amongst them is that they are not overwhelmingly
concerned with sea level rise at the moment. Some do not believe that where their homes currently sit
could be under water by the time many of them are in their later years in
life. Those that do realize that
sea level rise will happen and will inundate the areas in which they live
believe that there is still time before any precautions or relocations need to
take place, and some are optimistic about the idea that governments and
scientists may be able to reverse the effects of climate change or develop ways
to shield coastal communities from sea level rise.
Conclusion
Sea
level rise is not isolated to just one part of the world, as water is added to
the oceans from the melting of ground ice – such as Greenland, Antarctica and
glaciers all over the world - every coastal region will be impacted. Due to changes in oceanic processes,
the geological composition of the coastlines, and underwater bathymetry of the
shoreline, some regions of the world will experience more detrimental sea level
rises than others. With population
set to increase three billion people to a total of ten billion by 2100,
according to the UN, New Jersey’s population is also on track to increase (United
Nations, 2011). More people now
live towards near the coast instead of the regions in the center of the
majority of countries. That is no
different in New Jersey. With more
than half of the close to 9 million people living in its 11 coastal counties,
the majority of its population faces serious changes in the near future.
New Jersey relies
heavily on the tourism that coastal communities provide to the millions of
visitors each summer, the tax revenue that the real estate provides and the
energy resources, such as the Salem Nuclear Power Plant that provides millions
with electricity. For many
decades, climate change and sea level rise was not considered at the government
level, but within the last few years, steps have been taken to prepare the
state and its peoples for disastrous situations that may occur as a result of coastal
flooding from sea level rise, or violent storms as a result of the warming
coastal waters. Thanks to
breakthroughs in technology, climatologists, politicians and developers can use
extremely accurate models that have the ability to predict what may happen in a
number of scenarios showing sea level rise. This technology is being put to use every day to test
different variables that may change the outcome or prediction of climate change
and sea level rise in the future. While
many are apprehensive about the thought of relocating to higher ground, this
idea is becoming accepted my more people living in vulnerable areas of the
state.
Many
different organizations have conducted studies that show variations in the
extent to which sea levels will rise in this region. The recently released study by Asbury Sallenger is proving
to be one in which many scientists and politicians are accepting. With new information showing the sea
level is rising 3 to 4 times faster in this region than the global average, the
focus now points to politicians and how they will handle this situation. There is no more room for political
gridlock or economic cost benefit analyses; the general consensus of the
science community that seas will rise by a meter or more by 2100 needs to be
the only factor that politicians consider when planning for the future
development and status of their state.
